So this will be the last series of American Idol with Simon Cowell serving as a judge, and next year, there’ll be another star-building monolith grinding through the schedules, munching up everything in its path. But as someone who has seen the switch from the Idol format to the X-Formula in the UK already, I have reservations about whether this is really as good a change as Cowell – and others – are suggesting.

Let’s get the very simplest thing out of the way first: Simon Cowell can make all the arguments he wants to about how X factor, having categories for the weak and the elderly (or ‘groups’ and ‘over-24-year-olds’, as they usually tactfully term them) opens the competition up and levels the playing ground for everyone involved. He may talk about how it means that judges are able to do more mentoring than judging, and how the audience get more of a chance to get to know the acts this way.

And, to an extent, those things are true. Also true, of course, is that the X Factor format is created by, and produced by, Simon Cowell’s production company, whereas on Idol, he serves only as a judge. So he stands to make a great deal more invested in having the X Factor succeed than he does in Idol’s continued success. Now, that’s not news, and it’s not a surprise. I just hate the idea that it gets lost in all the guff talked about how and why X Factor will be a remarkable improvement on a stale old format.

Will X Factor be a remarkable improvement on a stale old format?

No. Not really. It is, essentially, the same thing. There is no escaping that. A bunch of people who like to sing will sing, and the one who sings the best will win. That’s the driving idea behind both of them, and usually what happens, too.

But these suggestions that, somehow, the process will end up with few identikit young men with sweet voices and sweeter smiles getting into the final stages? That’s just a far off dream.

American Idol: Thousands upon thousands of aspiring young singers under 25 apply to be the next American Idol, including quite a few aspiring young singers who cannot sing.
X Factor Even more thousands apply for the chance of proving ‘They have the X Factor’. A not insubstantial number of these ones can’t sing either, but now there are a groups, and old people (over 24) who can’t sing either, so it’s even MORE fun.

American Idol Then goes to boot camp.
X-Factor Also goes to boot camp.

There is not much can be said, here, it’s the same process, certainly in recent seasons in the UK – though mainly because they’ve copy and pasted it from American Idol.

THEN:

American Idol goes to the top 24, or, last year, a ridonkulous 36.
X Factor, the final 24 acts go to the ‘The Judges Houses’ round NB: not actually the judges houses.

Here’s the big change:
– Representing the intimate mentoring relationship the judges will be taking with the contestants, the remaining contestants are taken to the judge’s houses, where they are given tips on how to improve, and get to sing several songs before either being a) allowed through to the live finals or b) Booted.
– Representing how this is mainly contrived nonsense, meanwhile, the fact the ‘judges houses’ actually means ’some exotic location with very tenuous links to the judges’ life or career’.

And then, at the end of that round, 12 remain. Just like American Idol. Three young men under 24, Three young women the same; three old people who, bless their hearts, would in a sane world just be sent off to a home now, and forgotten, for they are over 24. And three groups.

And if the past is anything to go by, the groups will get shunted off the show first. And then the rest, one by one by one – if you add their talent to their lovableness and multiply it by how cute they are, you’ll get a pretty representative table of who will still be in by the end of the finals.

At the end of the day, you’re most likely to have a cute boy as a winner. It’s just the way that people vote, and, let’s face it, how the pop industry thrives. Young, spunk-filled boys with clear skin and sparkling eyes. But essentially, there’s no real difference between the two.

What’s going to be interesting, then, is the idea that Fox might try to run both at the same time, each fishing from the same pool, each reaching out to the same viewer, each hoping to capture the heart of the nation.

The potential problem is that you’ve got a viewership loyal to Simon, but also loyal to the strong American Idol brand. And attempting to split their affection: or multiply it exponentially, runs the risk of them all just wandering off, bored, to find the next most shiny object on television instead. And goodness knows there’s never a shortage of those.